Jordan Carter of Just Left has has blogged on why he believes Labour can win a fourth term (shudder). The article is well worth a read by anyone who thinks the Centre/Right can coast to victory in 2008.
Jordan Carter makes the point that;
“Never again is there going to be the kind of confluence of events that nearly helped National over the line in 2005:
a very large budget surplus
simmering angst on Treaty issues
a “moral backlash” of a sort due to e.g. civil unions, prostitution law reforms, etc
poor government attempts to engage the public in our issues”
According to Jordan:
National has a problem. Labour has recognised that motivating our base vote with sensible policies can get them out to the polls. National faces two choices: either moving to the centre, which will be ground it is hard to take from a wily and experienced Labour cabinet, or pitching to the right through the conventional neo-con politics of racism, wedge politics, etc.
Problem is they tried the latter last time, and all it did was drive moderate National voters into Labour’s hands. That is a key reason why our vote went up 97,000.
Jordan Carter is an experienced Labour activist, now working amongst Labour’s Wellington strategists and organisers. Nats and ACTivists would be wise to ponder his views.
Hat Tip David Farrar