My good friend, geopolitical strategist Jeff Nyquist believes that America may be walking into a trap if she attacks North Korea.
Russian and Chinese forces are moving into the area. Both countries are clearly preparing for war. Few doubt that America can defeat North Korea alone, but what will happen if Russia and China pile in? The US military is at its weakest point for many years. Right now Russia and China have big advantages in both conventional and nuclear forces. NATO is weak and divided. America is preoccupied with internal strife not seen since the 1960s. What better time could there possibly be to launch WW3 – especially if President Trump can be lured into a first strike?
Tactical advantages combined with the moral high ground if the US shoots first make for a very tempting and long awaited opportunity for Moscow and Beijing. It is now the ‘best time in history’ for the China-Russia relationship.
Why not strike now? Why wait until President Trump has a chance to rebuild Obama’s gravely weakened military?
Do we think that Russia and China did not learn a lesson from the humiliations of the Reagan era?
From JR Nyquist.com:
“The Strategic Significance of “Russia Hacking the Election”
The political preparation of the morale of the people is of decisive importance in present-day conditions, since the use of weapons of mass destruction in war imposes exceptionally high and unprecedented demands on the political morale of the population.
– Soviet Military Strategy [p. 458]
Last Autumn Russia held a massive nuclear war civil defense exercise involving 40 million people. Russian TV explained, “Schizophrenics from America are sharpening nuclear weapons for Moscow.” Such was the rationale. Meanwhile the United States has no civil defense training for its population at all. Last February President Vladimir Putin ordered a “snap check” of Russia’s armed forces, wanting to know if Russia’s troops were ready for battle. According to Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu, “Special attention should be paid to combat alert, deployment of air defense systems for a time of war.”
On 20 April 2017 The Sunday Express published photos of Russian youngsters being trained with various weapons. There are pictures of children engaged in field exercises, holding rocket launchers, wearing gas masks. It would seem that the Russian government wants to properly train its young people for war. Yet who is really threatening Russia? Who would be crazy enough to launch a war of aggression against the world’s number one nuclear power?
Another 20 April headline states: “WW3 TENSIONS RISE: Shock footage shows Putin’s forces moving to North Korea’s border” — which means that Korea is a place to watch, ideally situated as a hotspot. There is a video which supposedly depicts one of three military trains headed toward the North Korean frontier. There have been reports of helicopters and tanks moving through the area as well.
The evidence of war preparations in Russia and China is plentiful. Russia and China’s prewar moves include: the accumulation of large gold reserves (for when paper currencies begin to collapse); an increase in agricultural output and the stockpiling of food in huge underground cities and bunkers; the production of a new generation of weapons (tanks, fighters, missiles, etc.); the infiltration and corruption of the West’s ruling class; the exploitation of political divisions in the United States for the purpose of destroying social trust or to encourage a civil war; and publicly pretending that the great power rivalry of previous decades is a thing of the past while secretly continuing that rivalry.
It’s too bad, of course, that the CIA will never discover any of this. The facts may be known, but they will not be acknowledged; instead, they will be explained away. The political imperative of our time has been to claim victory in the Cold War. The economic imperative has been market optimism (i.e., the peace dividend). The West has always been blind to the big picture. Western leaders are psychologically incapable of seeing that Russia and China — as the No. 2 and No. 3 Powers — are logically obligated to strive against the No. 1 Power. As of this writing, the President of the United States may boast that America is ready to rain “fire and fury”on its enemies, but the reality is quite different. America’s enemies are now ready to rain fire and fury upon America; for America is a divided country, intellectually confused, deracinated and demoralized. It is not the powerful, united and stable country of the past. The American people have, in large part, lost their instinct for national self-preservation. They have no real civil defense, yet they do not even feel their defenselessness. They are unprepared and ignorant of their enemy’s motives. Their leaders are a patchwork of plausible crooks, panderers and empty suits.
Last year an anonymous high-ranking NATO military official was quoted by La Stampa as saying, “We are at war, a hybrid war, the last step before the shooting begins.” This is the kind of quote a journalist gets from a frustrated military insider. In the first instance, the insider is frustrated because the national authorities are not raising more troops or building defenses. The insider speaks to the journalist because the powers-that-be are not listening to him. Therefore he pours out his complaints to a reporter. The truth must be told, after all — even if nobody listens. War is coming. War is being prepared against the West. As the anonymous NATO military official explained, “I’ve never seen so many Russian military exercises and provocations at the same time … [they are] meant to test our readiness.”
Speaking of tests: Late last year it was reported that Russia tested 162 new weapons since intervening in Syria. Meanwhile, the communist government of China has officially told its citizens to prepare for the start of World War III. Do they know something we don’t? It seems they do. Graham Allison recently pointed out in a Los Angeles Times Op-Ed, “If war breaks out on the Korean peninsula, China is ready to protect its national interests.” According to Allison, the Chinese are preparing to “push deep into North Korea in the event of crisis.” Allison further noted, “If Chinese and American forces again meet in Korea [as they did during the Korean War of 1950-53] the PLA will not at all resemble the low-tech army of the past.”
Some of our leaders imagine that China and Russia will help the United States contain the North Korean threat. This idea is yet another self-deception. The Russians have given North Korea its weapons of mass destruction. China provides North Korea with conventional weapons and food. There would be no North Korean threat to South Korea, Japan and the U.S. if Russia and China had not nurtured it. Ask yourself why Russia and China have gone to so much trouble? If we have the courage to see, the answer is not far to find.
It has been my contention, for many years, that the KGB defector Anatoliy Golitsyn was generally correct in his analysis of the liberalization that led to the collapse of the USSR. Golitsyn predicted the liberalization before it occurred, and he accurately predicted where it would lead. He said that the communist party would appear to lose its monopoly of power. This would allow Russia access to capital and technology it could not have acquired during the Cold War. This capital and technology would enable Russia, further down the road, to build a military machine second to none. Golitsyn argued that Soviet liberalization was devised with this end in mind. It was also devised to eliminate anti-communism and destroy the West’s vigilance so that communism could make gains across the globe without anyone noticing. If we look at what has happened, from Venezuela and Nicaragua to Brazil and Nepal, South Africa, Congo and Angola, communism did not disappear. It has been victorious in country after country. But nobody in the media says anything. And this is quite telling. Even more alarming, the writings of Trevor Loudon and Cliff Kincaid suggest that communism has successfully penetrated the U.S. Government. There are many questions about the Obama administration which have not been asked; yet if we ask in earnest, the answers might prove more than a little alarming.
The shame of today’s “experts” is their failure to recognize that Golitsyn’s main thesis has endured the test of time. Even more important, his thesis continues to explain what we see today — and what is presently unfolding. Whatever errors he made, Golitsyn grasped the essence of Sino-Soviet grand strategy. It is this strategy that is now manifest in the provocations of North Korea. The old Communist Bloc never went away. It still exists behind the facade of “capitalist” China and “Democratic” Russia. It’s tentacles in Eastern Europe remain intact. It’s agent networks and allied communist parties are still in operation. The North Korean regime is an openly communist regime, even now. It was part of the Communist Bloc and is still supported by Moscow the same as in 1950. The importance of North Korea for Russia and China lies in its geography. Korea is situated in the one theater of operations where Russian and Chinese military forces can unite most effectively together.
The next point to be made about Russian and Chinese war preparations is tricky. In the modern world, military aggression is generally viewed as bad. Those who start wars of aggression are said to be criminals. It follows that the governments of Russia and China want the United States to start the next world war. They want the United States to be criminally culpable. In fact, for many decades Russian military textbooks have assumed that the next great war will be started by the Americans. We read in V.D. Sokolovskiy’s authoritative text, Soviet Military Strategy, “The class essence of bourgeois military strategy lies in the fact that it serves the reactionary aim of preparing war to destroy the most progressive social system — socialism — and to prevent the inevitable development of mankind along the road to communism.” (p. 515, Rand Trans).
It is, in fact, part of Russian and Chinese military doctrine that a future war will be started by the Americans. But do not be fooled. The Russians and Chinese will choose the time and place to begin the war. Through a satellite country they will engineer an irresistible provocation (i.e., an alleged lunatic brandishing nuclear weapons). To this end they have built up Iran and North Korea. We should have no illusions about this. America will be goaded into striking first. But the truth is, Russia and China will use America’s desperate preemptive measures to justify a much larger war of aggression; for the Russian and Chinese military doctrines only pretend to be defensive. In fact, both countries have built their military forces for attacking a distant enemy — the United States of America. One Russian military text states, quite clearly, that, “We believe that the main determinant in the attack is the most decisive operation possible, having for its purpose the total destruction of the enemy’s armed forces, and particularly the destruction of his nuclear weapons; that is, the achievement of results such that he would no longer be capable of offering further resistance.” [From an article by Lt. Gen of Aviation, G. Lobov titled “Comments on Types and Forms of Combat Operations,” Voyennay mysl, 1964, no. 11, p. 15.]
You cannot write such a thing unless you are contemplating a surprise attack; for the safest way to destroy America’s nuclear weapons is to attack them before they are launched. This idea is implied throughout Russian military literature. When I was interviewing the Russian military intelligence defector Stanislav Lunev in 1998, journalist Christopher Ruddy asked him what was the most decisive factor in determining the outcome of a future war. Lunev said it was surprise. Let us be perfectly clear: the Russians plan to strike first. Yet, this strike cannot be out of the blue.
Here is where North Korea comes in. It is the geographical point at which Russian and Chinese forces can be combined. It is a regime predicated on nuclear provocation. How long can the United States continue to ignore the “North Korean madman”? Thus, it is only obvious that the United States is being goaded, little by little. The American president is being led to believe that he hasn’t any choice in the matter, that North Korea must be preemptively attacked.
And what happens if the U.S. launches a preemptive attack on North Korea?
The Russians and Chinese will denounce as “aggression” any preemptive strike on North Korea and launch a prompt counter-attack against the United States. In the resulting battle the United States would almost certainly lose an aircraft carrier. The blow to American prestige would be tremendous. The president of the United States would probably be forced to resign, or he would be impeached. Perhaps there would be a military coup. The dollar would fall and America’s allies would be encouraged by Russia and China to abandon the United States and realign themselves with the new East Bloc.
Next, we must consider (in this context) the ongoing investigation of the 2016 election and the oft-heard public accusations against the President of the United States; namely, that he is in the pay of the Russians — or that the Russians put him in the White House. If so, why did they put him there? Such a question seems absurd in the context of peace. In the context of a world war, however, this question is like a dagger aimed at America’s heart; for as the U.S. commander-in-chief is accused of colluding with Russia, what becomes of national morale? Immediately the country is divided on the rightfulness of the highest military authority, and a “house divided” cannot stand.
Therefore we must add to the list of Russia’s war preparations the idea — inserted into our national consciousness — that Russia “hacked the U.S. presidential election.” This idea wounds the U.S. president and damages national morale in advance of a war. In fact, it is probable that this idea was invented in a Russian think tank with a military purpose in mind. As we see from the “Golden Shower Dossier,” Russia has intentionally fueled this rumor of Trump’s disloyality.
There is also the campaign, which began in 2013, in which Putin is portrayed as a Christian and defender of Western Civilization. This is absurd, of course, and only believed by people who haven’t studied Putin carefully. Yet Patrick Buchanan, a famous American conservative, praises Putin and encourages other conservatives to follow suit. Meanwhile, the same Leftists who would have been arrested if war had broken out in 1973 are posturing as anti-Russian patriots. If war breaks out, who is sent to prison? Conservatives or Marxists?
The bizarre political situation of today, whereby the Left levels treason charges against an elected American president, represents a stunning role reversal. The evidence against President Trump does not warrant the resulting hysteria which continues month after month. And yet, if anyone wishes to understand this strange development they have only to realize that it’s part of a Russian prewar active measure — plain and simple. There is no other interpretation of these events that so succinctly and perfectly explains them.