The big night is here again.
Except for underestimating Marco Rubio, I was pretty close on my calls for last week’s historic Iowa caucuses. I’ve spent some time in beautiful New Hampshire and have a little feel for the local political climate.
I think Marco Rubio will dip slightly after his weak performance on Saturday night’s debate. Trump support is both softenning and overestimated when it comes to actual voter turnout. The three Governors: Bush, Kasich and Christie, I think will all have very average nights and I think Carly Fiorina will get a small lift. My once second favorite Dr. Ben Carson is toast. His ungracious performance in light of the Iowa twitter non-scandal has cost him sympathy rather than gained it.
Ted Cruz will again over-perform, but possibly not enough to beat Mr Trump. He has a great ground game and loyal supporters who actually turn up to vote. I think he’ll also get about half of former candidate Rand Paul’s libertarian vote as a bonus. I give Senator Cruz a 30% chance of victory. If the race was 5 points closer, I’d give him 80%
Here’s my prediction for the vote Tuesday based on my contact with people on the ground, a little bit of intuition, and maybe some wishful thinking…
- Donald Trump 29%
- Ted Cruz 24%
- Marco Rubio 13%
- Jeb Bush 10%
- John Kasich 9%
- Chris Christie 7%
- Carly Fiorina 4%
- Ben Carson 4%
Let’s see if I’m right. There is so much riding on this… not just for the United States, but for every Western nation.
I hope New Hampshire voters are as wise as those in Iowa were on Tuesday tonight.