Joe Carolan is a former leader of the Irish Socialist Workers Party and now leads Socialist Aotearoa, a militant New Zealand Trotskyist group.
Joe Carolan is very tuned into the New Zealand and international far left, meaning that his forecasts can be taken seriously.
He has just issued a series of predictions on New Zealand and European politics for 2011. I think he is pretty accurate.
First New Zealand;
There will be an industrial campaign for a Living Wage led by Unite Union-Skycity workers had the Worlds First strike of 2011 on New Years Day
In March, they will be joined by striking workers in McDonalds and Burger King
In June, the eyes of the world will be on NZ in the uprun to the (rugby) World Cup. Hotel workers and Security workers will join the strike wave. There will be major marches against low pay and co ordinated strike action.
Those in favour of a New Left Party who will be at the centre of this campaign for low paid workers will meet over the next six months. The possibilty of gaining three or four New Left MPs is a certainty if Hone joins the new party. It would be a far better political development than the resurgence of a racist NZ First.
Credible. There will almost certainly be damaging strikes during the Rugby World Cup. It is easy to imagine radical Maori Party MP Hone Harawira jumping to the planned Left Party.
Eire and the UK;
The global economic crisis will continue to deepen. The government parties in Ireland will be wiped out in a March election, with a massive swing to the Left- Labour, Sinn Fein and the United Left Alliance will all do very well.
Unions will join the student revolt in Britain in late January- watch out for the new leader of Unite UK joining with Mark Serwotka of the PCS.
Credible. Easy to see public sector union leader Mark Serwotka working with the UK Socialist Workers Party.
Across the rest of Europe, general strikes will continue to mobilise the workers of Greece, Spain, Portugal and France. The crisis will also spread into Italy, Eastern Europe and other weaker economies. The potential for the Left to organise a European wide General Strike will be the prize of 2011.
A Trotskyist/communist led general strike throughout Europe in 2011?
Europe will suffer major Trotskyist/communist/anarchist civil unrest this year. Will it be channeled into a major transnational strike? Not beyond the bounds of possibility.