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Trevor Loudon’s prediction for Tuesday’s New Hampshire primary

Submitted by on February 8, 2016 – 11:54 pm EST26 Comments

trokoThe big night is here again.

Except for underestimating Marco Rubio, I was pretty close on my calls for last week’s historic Iowa caucuses. I’ve spent some time in beautiful New Hampshire and have  a little feel for the local political climate.

I think Marco Rubio will dip slightly after his weak performance on Saturday night’s debate. Trump support is both softenning and overestimated when it comes to actual voter turnout. The three Governors: Bush, Kasich and Christie, I think will all have very average nights and I think Carly Fiorina will get a small lift. My once second favorite Dr. Ben Carson is  toast. His ungracious performance in light of the Iowa twitter non-scandal has cost him sympathy rather than gained it.

Ted Cruz will again over-perform, but possibly not enough to beat Mr Trump. He has a great ground game and loyal supporters who actually turn up to vote. I think he’ll also get about half of former candidate Rand Paul’s libertarian vote as a bonus. I give Senator Cruz a 30% chance of victory. If the race was 5 points closer, I’d give him 80%

Here’s my prediction for the vote Tuesday based on my contact with people on the ground, a little bit of intuition, and maybe some wishful thinking…

  • Donald Trump 29%
  • Ted Cruz 24%
  • Marco Rubio 13%
  • Jeb Bush 10%
  • John Kasich 9%
  • Chris Christie 7%
  • Carly Fiorina 4%
  • Ben Carson 4%

Let’s see if I’m right. There is so much riding on this… not just for the United States, but for every Western nation.

I hope New Hampshire voters are as wise as those in Iowa were on Tuesday tonight.


  • kelley white seward says:

    Mr. Trevor Loudon,

    I agree with you, but we all know at he end of the primary in all states TED CRUZ will win!!

    God Bless
    Kelley White Seward

  • Jerry Diaz says:

    Looks like a very solid prediction to me, however, I think the winner will be by 2 percentage points.

  • Stephen Henry says:

    For NH, I think Cruz is going to win 1st place. Trump is already backpedaling saying he really isn’t too worried how he does in NH, because his strength is SC and NV. Let me decode it this way, Trump knows the polls are bogus, way too high for him. He’s already shoring up for a loss. Then, to make matters worse for him, Trump keeps saying nutty stuff, especially today calling Cruz a dirty word. People in NH, above 13 years old, may not be overly religious, but they surely are not vulgar.

    • Lynda says:

      Right you are Stephen! My soldier in NH called after voting at 10 AM. Even he, a combat hardened soldier, was disgusted at the vulgarity that has come out in this campaign season. He spoke at length about the rudeness and vileness of the demonrat supporters crowding the entrances to the polling places.

      ‪#UniTED ‪ ‪#‎TrusTED ‪#‎CruzCrew #‎CruzOrLose2016 #‎TedCruz2016‬ #NHStrikeForce ‪#‎cruztovictory

  • HC says:

    I think the lower tiers will be much lower.

  • HC says:

    Actually, I believe Cruz will get it.

  • Mary says:

    I think your predictions are pretty close.
    However, I don’t expect Fiorina or Carson
    to go over 3% If there is a surprise, it would
    be with Fiorina.

  • Bill Gray says:

    I fear deeply for our nation should Trump represent the Republicans in the general election

  • Feral Cat says:

    Cruz getting almost 3 times Kasich? I don’t think so.

  • brad says:

    Cruz is doing well in spite of most traditional forces working against him. After his performance in Iowa and Rand Paul drop out he is polling at 13% I say 18-20% is expected and would be a great result. Trump wins with about 23% and brags about it for 7 straight days non stop

  • kaye c says:

    I have no clue on it. I drives me crazy being in the March spot every primary that we have to start with the east coast every single time. I want a rotation by region primary, using either the 7 established regions or divide those up into 5 regions. Kick off primaries would rotate every 4 years. It would serve to keep candidates on their toes and get them out of this cycle of false perception of reality that the nation is in this locked box. I’m sick and tired of getting these McCain/Romney hold my nose candidates. I would posit the ones after us are even more frustrated. By the time is gets to the rest of us the field is so changed I have to almost remain undecided because of all the drop outs.

    Regardless, what Cruz is going through at this point is nothing compared to the attacks he got here in Texas for Senate, it was spectacularly, insanely viscous. The out right lies and innuendos masquerading as fact were so inventive you’d have thought the guy committed mass murder and got away with it. And that was just from our side going through the primary and subsequent run-off with Dewhurst for the nomination; it doesn’t even begin to cover the other side did once we got him there, though it was a pretty good, though not taken for granted, lock up after that.

    We’re just waiting (impatiently!) for the voting to get here and see whose left stand.

    • renee nal says:

      Wow Kaye, I didn’t know that about Cruz in Texas 🙂 It is kind of comforting to know that he has faced this level of vitriol before. He knew what he was getting into… It is shocking to me that people on the right (supposedly) are acting this way.

      • kaye c says:

        It’s also been so. Research politics of the past, and this would be considered civil.

        Can you imagine what it was like before the advent of the personal computer and the internet? At this point, it’s only, primarily, words. We are connected now more than ever, we live in the moment. But imagine what it was like when news wasn’t received for days, weeks, months or longer. Politics has always been blood-thirsty events. It is very personal and very deep, where blood was [still is sometimes] literally shed over politics. Cheating was horrible, dirty tricks was expected. Relying on newspapers or word of mouth, meeting in towns squares, churches, events, whatever to get the news and fighting over it face to face. I sort of okay with it that while we’re connected we’re also disconnected physically so there is less opportunity for words and fists, and worse, to fly when these blood-thirsty events roll around every two/four years.

  • kaye c says:

    On a side note, can someone please tell me why Kasich’s stint as ‘Managing Director’ from 2001-2007 at Ohio’s Lehman Brothers has never come up? Managing Director is just a British term for out American term CEO; a CEO reports directly to the Board of Directors.

    We’re talking subprime loans and derivative bubble bursting market melt down here. For 18 years he severed in the U.S. House of Representatives and he’s out and just happens to coincidentally go into the revolving magic door from ‘politician’ to ‘investment banker”? And then go back into that revolving door and come out governor of Ohio…?

    The last two decades, especially the 90s, had tremendous events occur within the banking industry, housing, ‘community organizing’, and government collusion cronyism with catastrophic results. The repeal of Glass-Steagall, and many other policies had major, direct links to the 2008 market crash. Just what was Kasich involvement in all that? How and why did he end up at Lehman’s as a CEO? There are so many things in this guy’s background that sends up glaring red flags yet no ones talks about them.

    That might be something Cruz wants to investigate. I know I would like to hear Kasich answer some hard question. I want to hear him defend his record of rotating politician/banker, especially during one on the biggest GLOBAL market meltdowns in our time.

    • renee nal says:

      Wow I had no idea. Worth exploring.

    • brad says:

      Hi Kaye Kasich addressed this saying he was just in a sattelite office in Ohio , giving the impression he was a broker making cold calls. About as believable when he was claiming he created a 5 trillion dollar surplus when he was in congress until I called him out on it. He has since stopped.
      Yes I am taking credit with no proof.

    • Lynda says:

      kaye c – Thank you for both of your posts. I’m with you on the March thing, although being in Ohio, we were in May at one point which was a waste of time when we got our chance.

      I followed Ted’s senatorial campaign and have been an avid fan ever since. He sure does generate hate from his OWN party, which makes him even more attractive to me. 🙂

      One thing for sure, I will NEVER vote for Kasich!!! Didn’t vote for him for governor and certainly will not do so if he is the candidate in November. No more lessor of 2 evils for me!

      Why is it okay for him to work for Lehman Brothers, but is a mortal sin for Heidi Cruz, who is not running for office, to work for Goldman Sachs? At an appointment earlier today a local business woman said she didn’t like Cruz and when I asked why, Heidi was the reason. Seriously. People are brain dead!!!

      • kaye c says:

        Yeah, we had our go to May too, district mapping being challenged, courts involved. Worse than March.

        Haha, yes, like Cruz said, they hate me, I thought that was the entire point…Exactly! How did people manage to let a bottom feeder, barker clown like Trump make them forget that exact point so quickly? It’s like an Obamabot ‘Hope n Change’ cult of personality lobotomy. Amazing.

        You know, I don’t want to ‘swift boat’ Kasich, but the domestic/international banking cabal is a big deal. If he can’t stand the scrutiny his supporters need to know and be able to decide because their votes become important to the other candidates ability to move on or not.

        Yeah, if Cruz’s wife is a big deal, his senate campaign loan borrowed against his own assets is supposedly a big deal then why isn’t this; and if borrowing money against your OWN assets is a big deal why isn’t Trump getting bailouts from the Saudi Prince Alwaleed for his multiple bankruptcies. I guess Cruz didn’t have a Saud Prince on speed dial. 🙂

  • Trevor says:

    Indeed. Thanks Kaye.

  • Trevor says:

    You did better than me last time Arlen…lets see who da man tonight..

  • Lynda says:

    Mr. Loudon – I’ve been meaning to tell you how thrilled I am to have found your site. Thank you for all you do to forward the cause!

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